In the first six months of this year, reports have confirmed that the investment worth 2.8 billion USD in FDI was injected into Vietnam’s garment-textile industry . The Chief of Vietnam Textile And Apparel Association (VITAS) asserted that Vietnam’s garment-textile export revenue is going to hit 200 billion USD by 2035. Denim is also major part in the entire periphery of Textile & Garment and is expected to achieve an annual growth rate of 30% so far as US export is concerned . The country is also getting strong hold in EU market and post the implementation of EVFTA , the country will become stronger.

After the tariff war between US and China , a substantial production shift in Vietnam is expected and if the trade war remains for longer time , China’s loss will be Vietnam’s gain. In this report , we’ve analysed the denim exports of Vietnam to US from 2014 to June 2018 and it gives an idea how the country is growing rapidly.

[wlm_private_special]

If we look at the figures below, we will find that US market has actually declined marginally in terms of denim apparel imports. From 474 million pcs in 2014 it went down to 469 million pcs. These are figures that the denim market will not be too enthused about!

The average price also seems be on declining trend which is probably a good sign for the market. In the year 2012 the average price was US$ 8.14 per pc while in 2015 it reduced to US$ 7.99 per pc. However, this can be termed as a marginal change over 2014.

Men’s Jeans

In the year 2012 the imports of Men Jeans from the world to USA was 263.76 million Pcs with an average price of US$8.33 which reduced to US$8.16 with an import of 269.38 million pcs in 2013. In the year 2014 and 2015 the import figure saw a decline both in quantity as well as in average prices. In 2014 where import quantity was 256.24 million pcs, while in 2015 it reduced to 250.02 million pcs. So the actual imports of men’s jeans declined by over 3% since 2014 and over 7% since 2013.

Women’s Jeans

The import of women’s jeans also peaked out in 2013 when the country imported bout 245 million pcs. In 2014 the imports were 217 million pcs which was a whopping reduction of over 11%! 2015 however saw a marginal increase of about 1% – which cannot be said to be a very encouraging figure. The average price is almost stable from US$ 7.89 in 2014 to US$ 7.87 in 2015. The prices, we can say, are more or less stable sine 2012 – a sign that the country is able to manage to balance its import prices from around the world.

So far as the top exporting countries are concerned, China is still leading the charts with whopping 133.13 million pcs in 2015 while Mexico ranks second with 110.02 million pcs. China is able to give an average price of about US$ 7.52 while Mexico’s average price is US$8.74. However, considering that there is no import duty on imports of garments from Mexico (made with US fabrics); the price will come out more or less same. But China gives much more fashionable products to US than Mexico – which is focused on basics. Bangladesh ranks 3rd with the lowest average price per jeans which is merely US$6.53. Pakistan comes 4^the with a total of about 21 million pcs and Vietnam is at 5th with total export quantity of 19.13 million pcs at an average price of US$8.48.  It needs to be seen where the share of China will spill off once the country is not able to export as much it used to.

% Change in the imports from the year 2014 to 2015

Exporting Regions :

There are many regions and blocs which can be studied as a group to analyse which region is more important for exporting denim to US. Some of the main regions are Latin America, Asean, Agoa , Cafta etc. We analyse the figures from these countries as below.

Latin America is the highest contributor in the total import to the USA with total import quantity of 135.91 million pcs followed by ASEAN, AGOA and CAFTA with 48.74, 22.27 and 20.7 million pcs. Latin America – the main component is Mexico which takes the lion’s share of its exports. Among ASEAN countries, Vietnam is very important. AGOA still remains a small quantity and has not evolved over time despite duty benefits.

On the whole, not a very good year for denim apparel imports for the US market. It is still sluggish but there are hopes that 2016 will be better.

[/wlm_private_special]

Imports Of All Denim Apparel Into US  2009-2010

• last quarter of 2009 were 157 million pcs
• last quarter of 2010 were 148 million pcs .

That means that in the last quarter itself, the fall in imports is to the tune of 6.8% – a very large fall . If this trend of falling imports continues in the first half of 2011 , then we are looking at a very negative story on denim consumption in US . But since only one quarter in 2010 has shown a negative story, there is still hope and maybe the first quarter of 2011 will make the things more clear ..

There can be many possible reasons why this fall is happening . One of the main reasons could be the increase in prices of denim due to rising cotton prices, which is making the highest impact on Denim as denim is almost the heaviest product using cotton. It would be interesting to study whether the sales of all clothing has also shown a similar downward trend during 2010. Though , there is a time lag between the imports of a product and its actual sales at retail stores, the imports also are indicative of the sentiments of retailers which are based on their sales forecasts which depend on actual sales happening in the stores.

The following table shows the total sales in clothing stores in US during 2009 and 2010

Total Clothing Sales in US – Last Quarter of 2009 and 2010

Though these figures are for values (USD) , they clearly show that the sales of all clothing stores put together have actually shown a very positive increase during the year with about  4.4% increase in the year and about 5% increase in the last quarter itself. 

The denim imported in the last quarter of 2010 would be retailed in the first quarter (mostly) and the actual retail sales of clothing stores in the first quarter of 2010 would indicate whether it is only denim which is losing steam or not..   Lets keep our fingers crossed..

Countrywise Imports of Women’s Denim Jeans  into USA

During   2008 and 2009(Jan- June period)

There are some interesting things to note from the above figures:

1. China has seen a stumpendous increase in exports of Women’s/Girls’ Denim Jeans exports to USA and has almost doubled the same within a year. However, these figures have to be seen alongwith the figures of exports of Hongkong which has almost lost 90% of its exports. This clearly means that the denim jeans that  were last year being exported from Hongkong are now being exported through China. Inspite of this , the increase in China’s exports of Jeans has been phenomenal.. Has it got something to do with recession and a preference for cheaper products??
2. Most of the South American countries like Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Guatemala have been continously losing share of these exports (womens’ denim). However, the South East Asian /South Asian countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh ,Pakistan and Sri Lanka have been improving their share. Vietnam’s performance has been ,in particular , hs been very impressive in this category of denim jeans.
3. It is interesting to see that Jordan and Egypt both have increased their share. It shows that currently Egypt is not proving as much a threat to Jordan’s exports (in this category) as had been feared.
4. It is however, to be noted that the exports of denim jeans (men’s as well as women’s ) peak during the second half of the year. The figures for many countries could change during this half and show some reversal in trends. But the overall undertone for denim  is strongly positive and shows that sales of denim jeans is nowhere affected by the recessionary times.

I shall shortly post a report on the imports of Mens’/Boys’ Denim Jeans into USA in 2009 and I hope that it shall show similar positive trends..

Note: Like the report ? If u want to receive such reports free , just subscribe to the newsletter by entering your email address(if not already subscribed)..