Effect of rupee appreciation on exports of Mens,Boys jeans to USA in 2007

The appreciation of the Rupee against the USD has taken its toll on the exports of all textile and apparel products from India. There has been a general fall in exports of apparel items across the board..
Lets have a look at how the rupee appreciation has affected the exports of Mens and Boys jeans from India to USA.. I have also taken comparative figures from Bangladesh to see how it fares vis-a-vis India..

Exports of Mens/Boys jeans from India and Bangladesh to USA in 2006 and 2007

2006(doz pcs) 2007(doz pcs) Change(%)
Ist quarter 24000 22000 -8
2nd quarter 24000 33000 37
3rd quarter 55000 63000 14
4th quarter 33000
1st quarter 205000 312000 52
2nd quarter 390000 454000 16
3rd quarter 599000 739000 23
4th quarter 570000

Source :US customs

From the figures given above , we can see that the exports of jeans from India registered a fall of 8% in the first quarter of 2007 compared to the first quarter of 2006. However, the second and the third quarter have seen a steady increase in exports of jeans to US inspite of the appreciation of rupee.
On the other hand, the exports from Bangladesh continue to register a robust increase in all the three quarters of 2007..Bangladesh,in any case, has a huge lead over India in exports of Jeans and it seems to be increasing the gap further.
What is interesting is that the exports from India have not registered a fall despite the huge appreciation of rupee. This signifies that the additional capacities of jeans manufacturing have been created in India and the increase in exports would have been very significant, had the rupee not appreciated so much.
However, the next 2 quarters would show whether the Indian companies can sustain the growth in exports despite rupee appreciation or not – though i believe that the exports may grow stably given the excess capacities available in the industry..

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